Anticipation

When life moves faster than you can process, learn to anticipate or you'll get knotted up.

Like many people with an excess of anxiety and isolation (but without children) in 2020, I took up a hobby. Crochet, in my case. I'd learned it as a child from both grandmothers, who were experts. In contrast to knitting, which uses two long needles to build up a surface from yarn, crochet uses a hook. Each stitch can range from a simple loop to a dazzling combination of yarn-over twists and loops. The result can be pleasingly regular or incredibly complex and lacy. I have an entire tablecloth of crocheted lace from my paternal grandmother, and marvel at the patience it must have taken.

Crochet can be maddeningly frustrating, horrifically tedious, or satisfyingly soothing, just like any creative endeavor. Keeping it satisfyingly soothing requires learning how to plan and prepare, along with how to attend to execution. On an early project, I frustratingly ran out of yarn because I hadn't checked the gauge. (Gauge is a small sample square with that particular hook, yarn, and pattern to calculate how area translates to yarn length.) On another project I had to spend multiple hours untangling yarn because I hadn't taken 15 minutes to wind the skein into a ball. A stitch in time can definitely save nine, and on blood pressure medicine, too. Once I learned to take the time to plan and prepare, I could focus more on how the pattern was shaping up. I learned the places to watch out for to keep myself from going off track. I stayed more in the satisfyingly soothing zone.

The crochet project dynamics are very similar to helping an economy stay on track. If you want to have a sustainable, inclusive growing economy, you need to ensure there are enough resources to go around. Check your calculations against actual data, and figure out if you're going to run out of something before you accomplish your goal. Invest in infrastructure so those resources can unspool efficiently and be used as needed. Keep an eye on how things are going, and adjust as needed to keep things on track.

For example, we know that business cycles are a fact of life. Sometimes everyone seems to be optimistic, taking chances, making money, and extending themselves. Boom times are fun! Even if you lose your job, you can find another one quickly. It's easy to get overstretched. But then sometimes a small pullback starts as a firm realizes they can't keep taking chances. They retrench. Maybe their suppliers then pull back, and lay a few workers off, who pull back on their spending, and then the boom turns to bust. On average, these unravelings (also called recessions) happen about every five years in the US. If you anticipated the turn, though, it can be just another satisfying part of the pattern.

Almost all sub-national governments in the US have balanced budget requirements, especially for everyday operations. If revenue is tied to economic activity, and activity suddenly plummets during a recession, reserves will have to fill the revenue gaps unless cuts are made. During recessions, needs are often higher, though, making cuts particularly painful. Far better to ramp up operations when needs are higher. Building up reserves takes planning, and knowing where and how to ramp up takes preparation. There will still be unexpected wrinkles, but it can be deeply satisfying to serve people when they need it. The pandemic would have been far worse if Congress hadn’t authorized extraordinary unemployment insurance payments during the pandemic. Absent that money (and anti-eviction protections), more people would have been forced to go to their jobs, which likely would have spread the virus faster and killing more people. It wasn’t perfect, because the states didn’t have the systems to quickly ramp up, but enough people figured out workarounds that it worked. We can all learn from that.

Take the time to anticipate the biggest issues, and you won't end up with a lumpy, ragged economy (or sweater).